Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
